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中国南航(1055.HK):涨幅60%?可能才到这轮周期征程的一半!

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年04月26日 22:19:52
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(原)(标)(题)(:中)(国)(南)(航)((1055.HK):涨)(幅)(60%?可)(能)(才)(到)(这)(轮)(周)(期)(征)(程)(的)(一)(半)(!
如)(果)(你)(在)(港)(股)(的)(航)(空)(板)(块)(看)(看)(,你)(会)(发)(现)(世)(界)(多)(么)(美)(好)(,中)(国)(南)(方)(航)(空)(股)(份)(年)(初)(至)(今)(已)(经)(涨)(了)(61%,中)(国)(国)(航)(涨)(了)(55%,中)(国)(东)(方)(航)(空)(股)(份)(涨)(幅)(26%,国)(泰)(航)(空)(涨)(了)(18%,而)(同)(比)(的)(恒)(生)(指)(数)(只)(涨)(16.68%。
这)(一)(年)(是)(航)(空)(股)(的)(大)(年)(,这)(次)(的)(涨)(幅)(主)(要)(是)(由)(于)(17年)(国)(内)(经)(济)(复)(苏)(,航)(空)(需)(求)(转)(暖)(,代)(表)(航)(空)(需)(求)(的)(民)(航)(业)(17年)(国)(内)(RPK同)(比)(增)(速)(为)(14.7%,高)(于)(16年)(同)(期)(5.7个)(百)(分)(点)(,这)(半)(年)(走)(的)(是)(供)(求)(改)(善)(市)(。
'&一)(、当)(我)(们)(看)(航)(空)(股)(时)(究)(竟)(看)(的)(是)(什)(么)(?
航)(空)(股)(是)(典)(型)(的)(周)(期)(性)(行)(业)(,这)(很)(好)(理)(解)(,从)(其)(周)(期)(性)(产)(生)(原)(因)(分)(析)(,就)(可)(以)(大)(概)(航)(空)(公)(司)(的)(利)(润)(驱)(动)(因)(素)(,从)(而)(能)(从)(大)(周)(期)(上)(把)(握)(航)(空)(股)(的)(大)(概)(走)(势)(,这)(能)(让)(投)(资)(变)(得)(多)(一)(些)(确)(定)(性)(,获)(得)(超)(过)(市)(场)(的)(收)(益)(的)(可)(能)(性)(也)(相)(对)(比)(较)(大)(,所)(以)(我)(一)(直)(比)(较)(喜)(欢)(投)(资)(周)(期)(性)(行)(业)(。
经)(过)(这)(些)(年)(的)(总)(结)(,看)(航)(空)(其)(实)(主)(要)(看)(宏)(观)(,就)(看)(三)(个)(方)(面)(:经)(济)(发)(展)(导)(致)(的)(供)(需)(变)(化)(、石)(油)(的)(价)(格)(、汇)(率)(的)(变)(化)(。这)(些)(都)(不)(难)(理)(解)(:
1、要)(知)(道)(一)(般)(航)(空)(客)(运)(主)(要)(的)(客)(户)(就)(两)(类)(:一)(类)(是)(商)(务)(客)(户)(,需)(要)(经)(常)(坐)(飞)(机)(出)(差)(,这)(与)(经)(济)(的)(发)(展)(息)(息)(相)(关)(,第)(二)(类)(就)(是)(旅)(游)(旺)(季)(的)(旅)(客)(,这)(也)(与)(社)(会)(的)(发)(展)(程)(度)(有)(关)(,解)(决)(温)(饱)(,才)(到)(享)(乐)(。经)(济)(的)(增)(长)(,需)(求)(的)(增)(加)(会)(反)(应)(在)(客)(座)(率)(上)(,客)(座)(率)(的)(提)(高)(给)(航)(空)(提)(供)(了)(提)(价)(的)(空)(间)(,直)(接)(刺)(激)(了)(收)(入)(的)(增)(长)(,而)(因)(为)(规)(模)(效)(应)(,每)(一)(班)(航)(班)(的)(旅)(客)(多)(了)(,单)(位)(成)(本)(会)(下)(降)(,总)(的)(就)(直)(接)(导)(致)(利)(润)(的)(增)(加)(。
2、燃)(油)(是)(飞)(机)(运)(营)(中)(最)(大)(的)(成)(本)(,一)(般)(占)(公)(司)(整)(个)(营)(业)(成)(本)(的)(25%以)(上)(,油)(价)(的)(涨)(跌)(对)(公)(司)(的)(最)(终)(的)(利)(润)(无)(疑)(具)(有)(重)(大)(影)(响)(,处)(理)(不)(好)(会)(产)(生)(深)(远)(的)(影)(响)(,反)(面)(例)(子)(是)(国)(泰)(航)(空)(,因)(为)(在)(前)(几)(年)(用)(石)(油)(期)(货)(对)(冲)(固)(定)(油)(价)(,没)(想)(到)(固)(定)(到)(了)(一)(个)(高)(水)(平)((90美)(元)(左)(右)()到)(2019年)(,这)(两)(年)(就)(因)(为)(油)(价)((现)(在)(48美)(元)(左)(右)()造)(成)(巨)(大)(亏)(损)(,噩)(梦)(还)(没)(结)(束)(。
3、中)(国)(的)(飞)(机)(用)(的)(都)(是)(来)(自)(波)(音)(和)(空)(客)(飞)(机)(,石)(油)(的)(进)(口)(需)(要)(用)(美)(元)(结)(算)(,而)(收)(入)(主)(要)(是)(人)(民)(币)(,这)(就)(会)(产)(生)(大)(量)(的)(汇)(兑)(损)(益)(,进)(而)(影)(响)(最)(终)(利)(润)(,本)(国)(的)(货)(币)(升)(值)(对)(于)(航)(空)(公)(司)(的)(利)(润)(有)(正)(面)(影)(响)(,贬)(值)(一)(般)(是)(负)(面)(影)(响)(。
因)(为)(这)(三)(个)(因)(素)(多)(多)(少)(少)(都)(有)(周)(期)(性)(性)(质)(,这)(三)(个)(因)(素)(的)(涨)(落)(变)(化)(形)(成)(了)(航)(空)(股)(的)(周)(期)(变)(化)(,三)(个)(因)(素)(如)(果)(有)(两)(个)(因)(素)(比)(较)(强)(势)(就)(能)(大)(概)(率)(产)(生)(一)(个)(周)(期)(性)(航)(空)(牛)(市)(。
航)(空)(股)(十)(年)(三)(次)(大)(涨)(,分)(别)(在)(06-07年)(、09-10年)(及)(14-15年)(,第)(一)(次)(是)(由)(于)(人)(民)(币)(的)(大)(幅)(升)(值)(,航)(空)(运)(输)(指)(数)(涨)(了)(6倍)(,第)(二)(次)(是)(金)(融)(危)(机)(后)(国)(家)(政)(策)(的)(刺)(激)(下)(,经)(济)(繁)(荣)(,国)(民)(的)(生)(活)(水)(平)(提)(高)(,商)(务)(客)(运)(和)(国)(内)(旅)(行)(的)(兴)(起)(产)(生)(了)(航)(空)(股)(的)(大)(涨)(,涨)(了)(2倍)(左)(右)(,15年)(的)(大)(涨)(则)(是)(因)(为)(石)(油)(价)(格)(的)(大)(跌)(而)(产)(生)(利)(润)(大)(涨)(,这)(些)(都)(在)(中)(国)(的)(货)(币)(坚)(挺)(,两)(个)(因)(素)(的)(双)(击)(下)(产)(生)(的)(牛)(市)(。
而)(这)(次)(的)(牛)(市)(,似)(乎)(和)(从)(前)(的)(两)(次)(都)(不)(一)(样)(,在)(16年)(油)(价)(的)(回)(升)(的)(背)(景)(下)(,并)(没)(有)(像)(前)(两)(次)(那)(样)(跌)(回)(到)(历)(史)(底)(部)(,迎)(来)(17年)(,从)(各)(种)(数)(据)(上)(都)(显)(示)(,现)(在)(正)(是)(航)(空)(业)(最)(有)(想)(象)(力)(的)(时)(代)(。
'&二)(、航)(空)(业)(最)(有)(想)(象)(力)(的)(时)(代)(
历)(史)(上)(有)(一)(个)(神)(奇)(的)(数)(字)(,只)(要)(一)(国)(的)(人)(均)(GDP超)(过)(8000美)(元)(,就)(会)(出)(现)(消)(费)(升)(级)(,出)(境)(旅)(游)(的)(需)(求)(就)(会)(大)(幅)(度)(增)(长)(,从)(而)(带)(动)(航)(空)(出)(现)(持)(续)(火)(热)(。
韩)(国)(1992年)(人)(均)(GDP超)(过)(8000美)(元)(,出)(境)(游)(人)(数)(开)(始)(出)(现)(爆)(发)(式)(的)(增)(长)(。1978年)(的)(日)(本)(人)(均)(GDP达)(到)(8000美)(元)(,也)(在)(不)(久)(后)(出)(现)(了)(出)(境)(游)(的)(剧)(烈)(膨)(胀)(,从)(而)(成)(为)(推)(动)(航)(空)(业)(发)(展)(的)(一)(个)(强)(有)(力)(的)(增)(长)(力)(量)(。
近)(一)(两)(年)(,中)(国)(也)(刮)(起)(了)(消)(费)(升)(级)(的)(风)(潮)(,而)(我)(国)(16年)(人)(均)(GDP为)(8130美)(元)(,强)(大)(的)(需)(求)(就)(是)(打)(破)(航)(空)(股)(热)(后)(跌)(会)(底)(部)(的)(最)(大)(原)(因)(。
据)(艾)(媒)(咨)(询)(,中)(国)(2016年)(中)(国)(出)(境)(旅)(游)(人)(数)(达)(到)(1.28亿)(人)(,比)(15年)(同)(比)(增)(长)(9.4%,出)(境)(游)(总)(花)(费)(达)(到)(1098亿)(美)(元)(,人)(均)(花)(费)(900美)(元)(,居)(民)(收)(入)(增)(长)(和)(消)(费)(升)(级)(推)(动)(下)(,目)(的)(地)(免)(签)(或)(落)(地)(签)(的)(影)(响)(下)(,中)(国)(出)(境)(游)(持)(续)(走)(热)(。
如)(果)(中)(国)(也)(如)(韩)(国)(日)(本)(,消)(费)(升)(级)(将)(会)(对)(中)(国)(的)(航)(空)(业)(产)(生)(强)(力)(且)(持)(久)(的)(刺)(激)(,航)(空)(业)(未)(来)(将)(会)(走)(出)(一)(波)(超)(级)(大)(周)(期)(,而)(现)(在)(这)(种)(周)(期)(,似)(乎)(已)(经)(开)(始)(显)(现)(。
在)(航)(空)(业)(中)(,可)(以)(用)(RPK(收)(费)(客)(公)(里)()的)(增)(速)(和)(ASK(可)(用)(座)(公)(里)()的)(增)(速)(比)(较)(来)(衡)(量)(市)(场)(对)(于)(航)(空)(的)(供)(需)(关)(系)(。
从)(上)(面)(两)(幅)(图)(可)(以)(看)(出)(,国)(内)(方)(面)(,RPK增)(速)(已)(经)(连)(续)(超)(过)(8个)(月)(超)(过)(ASK,在)(这)(之)(前)(,油)(价)(大)(跌)(的)(整)(个)(牛)(市)(时)(期)(都)(没)(出)(现)(如)(此)(高)(连)(续)(趋)(势)(,而)(且)(在)(第)(二)(季)(度)(淡)(季)(的)(时)(候)(也)(高)(于)(ASK,这)(在)(历)(史)(上)(也)(是)(少)(见)(,临)(近)(三)(四)(季)(度)(的)(旺)(季)(,RPK抛)(离)(ASK的)(趋)(势)(更)(是)(明)(显)(。
国)(际)(市)(场)(上)(也)(是)(差)(不)(多)(,不)(同)(于)(过)(去)(,过)(去)(的)(RPK大)(于)(ASK是)(因)(为)(中)(国)(航)(班)(的)(供)(给)(能)(力)(不)(足)(,而)(最)(近)(的)(国)(际)(航)(运)(线)(路)(额)(度)(已)(经)(接)(近)(用)(完)(,在)(这)(样)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,17年)(年)(初)(到)(现)(在)(国)(际)(航)(班)(的)(的)(需)(求)(明)(显)(处)(于)(高)(速)(增)(长)(的)(状)(态)(。
从)(客)(座)(率)(的)(表)(现)(能)(直)(接)(看)(出)(,国)(内)(市)(场)(的)(客)(座)(率)(已)(经)(在)(高)(位)(,而)(国)(际)(市)(场)(的)(客)(座)(率)(也)(正)(在)(急)(速)(上)(涨)(。细)(心)(的)(你)(可)(能)(发)(现)(,仍)(在)(淡)(季)(的)(客)(座)(率)(已)(经)(超)(过)(了)(80%,而)(且)(比)(过)(去)(5年)(的)(客)(座)(率)(都)(高)(,这)(还)(是)(总)(体)(的)(状)(况)(,如)(果)(直)(接)(看)(三)(大)(航)(这)(种)(体)(量)(的)(公)(司)(,会)(更)(为)(直)(接)(地)(看)(到)(航)(空)(市)(场)(的)(强)(劲)(市)(场)(。
'&三)(、石)(油)(价)(格)(将)(主)(导)(下)(半)(场)(
现)(在)(可)(以)(基)(本)(确)(认)(供)(需)(关)(系)(的)(持)(续)(改)(善)(,经)(济)(的)(发)(展)(,消)(费)(升)(级)(将)(大)(概)(率)(维)(持)(航)(空)(业)(的)(需)(求)(火)(热)(,而)(还)(有)(个)(人)(均)(GDP8000美)(元)(的)(大)(饼)(放)(在)(你)(面)(前)(,大)(饼)(兑)(现)(的)(故)(事)(很)(美)(好)(。但)(谨)(慎)(的)(投)(资)(者)(肯)(定)(还)(会)(犹)(豫)(,虽)(然)(供)(需)(关)(系)(改)(善)(了)(,但)(会)(不)(会)(已)(经)(被)(pricein?大)(饼)(虽)(美)(,但)(哥)(不)(相)(信)(故)(事)(。
OK,我)(们)(就)(当)(现)(在)(航)(空)(业)(的)(涨)(幅)(已)(经)(被)(pricein,大)(家)(都)(未)(来)(航)(空)(消)(费)(升)(级)(的)(想)(象)(力)(足)(够)(而)(且)(全)(部)(反)(应)(在)(股)(价)(上)(。但)(我)(更)(想)(说)(的)(是)(,另)(一)(辆)(马)(车)(,石)(油)(价)(格)(将)(会)(主)(导)(下)(半)(场)(行)(情)(,并)(将)(成)(为)(下)(一)(轮)(行)(情)(的)(催)(化)(剂)(。
我)(认)(为)(油)(价)(仍)(有)(向)(下)(的)(可)(能)(,至)(少)(不)(会)(上)(涨)(超)(过)(50美)(元)(,而)(现)(在)(主)(流)(券)(商)(认)(为)(的)(油)(价)(布)(伦)(特)(油)(的)(价)(格)(中)(枢)(在)(50美)(元)(左)(右)(。
逻)(辑)(很)(简)(单)(:
1、一)(直)(以)(来)(,全)(球)(能)(源)(以)(石)(油)(为)(主)(,石)(油)(的)(价)(格)(与)(经)(济)(息)(息)(相)(关)(,当)(前)(世)(界)(经)(济)(依)(然)(存)(在)(不)(确)(定)(性)(,以)(中)(国)(和)(美)(国)(为)(主)(的)(石)(油)(消)(费)(大)(国)(的)(全)(球)(经)(济)(放)(缓)(,导)(致)(了)(石)(油)(的)(供)(不)(应)(求)(,支)(撑)(不)(起)(油)(价)(。
2、自)(2015年)(美)(国)(取)(消)(原)(油)(出)(口)(禁)(令)(以)(来)(,美)(国)(原)(油)(的)(出)(口)(也)(在)(不)(断)(攀)(升)(,美)(国)(的)(原)(油)(和)(汽)(油)(储)(备)(不)(断)(减)(少)(,这)(是)(美)(国)(的)(主)(动)(减)(少)(。美)(国)(能)(源)(信)(息)(署)((EIA)最)(新)(预)(估)(显)(示)(,2017年)(的)(美)(国)(产)(量)(均)(值)(将)(会)(达)(到)(920万)(桶)(/日)(,2018年)(将)(升)(至)(1000万)(桶)(/日)(,跻)(身)(全)(球)(三)(大)(产)(油)(国)(之)(列)(,OPEC产)(量)(仅)(占)(全)(球)(产)(量)(的)(40%。
另)(外)(,美)(国)(的)(能)(源)(结)(构)(已)(经)(逐)(步)(变)(成)(以)(天)(然)(气)(为)(主)(的)(能)(源)(结)(构)(,美)(国)(不)(再)(需)(要)(如)(此)(多)(石)(油)(,也)(不)(再)(保)(持)(石)(油)(储)(备)(。
布)(伦)(特)(原)(油)(期)(货)(价)(格)(在)(延)(长)(减)(产)(协)(议)(达)(成)(后)(升)(至)(54美)(元)(/桶)(,但)(目)(前)(布)(油)(期)(货)(在)(45美)(元)(/桶)(徘)(徊)(,布)(油)(跌)(幅)(已)(到)(20%。——美)(国)(需)(求)(急)(剧)(减)(少)(加)(上)(还)(减)(库)(存)(出)(口)(,这)(双)(击)(是)(石)(油)(价)(格)(的)(最)(大)(打)(击)(。
3、但)(石)(油)(是)(中)(东)(国)(家)(和)(俄)(罗)(斯)(的)(命)(脉)(,肯)(定)(要)(保)(住)(,页)(岩)(气)(和)(页)(岩)(油)(的)(风)(潮)(下)(,需)(求)(下)(降)(,只)(能)(减)(产)(。对)(于)(中)(东)(石)(油)(产)(国)(来)(说)(,石)(油)(是)(他)(们)(的)(最)(主)(要)(的)(经)(济)(来)(源)(,现)(在)(减)(产)(意)(志)(看)(起)(来)(坚)(定)(的)(只)(有)(沙)(特)(和)(俄)(罗)(斯)(两)(大)(出)(口)(大)(国)(,他)(们)(或)(许)(能)(够)(牺)(牲)(短)(期)(利)(益)(来)(打)(压)(页)(岩)(油)(页)(岩)(气)(,但)(其)(他)(小)(国)(可)(耐)(不)(住)(,一)(直)(在)(对)(外)(输)(送)(石)(油)(,减)(产)(效)(果)(并)(不)(好)(,油)(价)(可)(能)(连)(现)(在)(这)(个)(位)(置)(都)(保)(不)(住)(。
4、中)(国)(在)(15-16年)(油)(价)(下)(跌)(时)(进)(了)(很)(多)(石)(油)(,现)(在)(的)(中)(国)(石)(油)(对)(外)(依)(赖)(程)(度)(已)(经)(超)(过)(68%,出)(于)(国)(家)(能)(源)(安)(全)(考)(虑)(,中)(国)(大)(概)(率)(不)(会)(再)(增)(加)(进)(口)(。
综)(上)(所)(述)(:美)(国)(和)(中)(国)(代)(表)(全)(球)(经)(济)(减)(弱)(导)(致)(的)(需)(求)(的)(减)(弱)(,美)(国)(开)(采)(技)(术)(改)(进)(导)(致)(的)(石)(油)(出)(口)(加)(大)(,减)(产)(不)(理)(想)(的)(预)(期)(,无)(论)(从)(供)(给)(还)(是)(需)(求)(角)(度)(,都)(无)(法)(找)(到)(油)(价)(会)(涨)(的)(可)(能)(。
石)(油)(价)(格)(大)(概)(率)(会)(持)(续)(疲)(弱)(,在)(这)(样)(的)(前)(景)(下)(,很)(有)(可)(能)(出)(现)(双)(重)(的)(重)(大)(刺)(激)(,航)(空)(股)(的)(下)(半)(场)(将)(由)(油)(价)(主)(导)(,而)(按)(照)(现)(在)(的)(形)(势)(,航)(空)(股)(将)(会)(得)(到)(不)(断)(的)(利)(好)(刺)(激)(。
'&四)(、中)(国)(南)(方)(航)(空)(——有)(弹)(性)(、有)(故)(事)(
根)(据)(上)(面)(的)(逻)(辑)(,可)(以)(从)(3支)(航)(空)(港)(股)(中)(选)(择)((国)(泰)(航)(空)(从)(各)(方)(面)(看)(还)(差)(一)(些)(,故)(直)(接)(排)(除)(),既)(要)(有)(空)(间)(踩)(中)(未)(来)(可)(能)(的)(经)(济)(发)(展)(产)(生)(的)(机)(会)(,也)(要)(对)(油)(价)(有)(足)(够)(的)(敏)(感)(性)(撑)(起)(现)(在)(已)(经)(涨)(幅)(巨)(大)(的)(股)(价)(,综)(合)(这)(两)(方)(面)(,中)(国)(南)(方)(航)(空)(可)(能)(最)(为)(合)(适)(。
1、油)(价)(最)(有)(弹)(性)(的)(航)(空)(股)(
上)(图)(是)(根)(据)(16年)(年)(报)(内)(容)(大)(致)(作)(出)(的)(敏)(感)(性)(分)(析)(,可)(以)(看)(出)(,对)(于)(油)(价)(上)(涨)(最)(为)(敏)(感)(的)(就)(是)(中)(国)(南)(方)(航)(空)(油)(价)(每)(下)(降)(5%,对)(于)(利)(润)(就)(会)(增)(加)(20.18%,中)(国)(国)(航)(仅)(为)(14.17%,东)(方)(航)(空)(18.8%,油)(价)(的)(下)(降)(将)(会)(对)(南)(方)(航)(空)(有)(着)(最)(大)(的)(刺)(激)(作)(用)(。
另)(外)(,从)(三)(大)(航)(空)(公)(司)(的)(对)(比)(可)(以)(看)(出)(,从)(16年)(底)(开)(始)(,南)(方)(航)(空)(的)(客)(座)(率)(已)(经)(是)(三)(大)(航)(空)(公)(司)(中)(最)(高)(,未)(来)(的)(旺)(季)(根)(据)(历)(史)(,航)(空)(公)(司)(在)(旺)(季)(的)(客)(座)(率)(会)(继)(续)(上)(升)(,客)(座)(率)(的)(高)(企)(为)(票)(价)(上)(涨)(留)(下)(更)(大)(的)(空)(间)(,这)(对)(于)(南)(方)(航)(空)(来)(说)(也)(是)(最)(大)(收)(益)(者)(,因)(为)(南)(方)(航)(空)(拥)(有)(最)(多)(的)(机)(队)(,旺)(季)(可)(能)(会)(出)(现)(量)(价)(齐)(升)(的)(现)(象)(。
另)(外)(,如)(果)(客)(座)(率)(无)(法)(提)(高)(,相)(比)(于)(其)(他)(公)(司)(,南)(方)(航)(空)(可)(以)(采)(取)(降)(价)(的)(方)(式)(来)(弥)(补)(损)(失)(,操)(作)(空)(间)(也)(比)(较)(大)(,而)(其)(他)(航)(空)(公)(司)(用)(这)(种)(方)(式)(将)(付)(出)(更)(大)(的)(代)(价)(。
2、有)(故)(事)(有)(潜)(力)(
业)(绩)(良)(好)(:5月)(单)(月)(,总)(体)(、国)(内)(、国)(际)(数)(据)(,ASK同)(比)(增)(速)(分)(别)(为)(11.63%、12.57%、10.53%;RPK同)(比)(增)(速)(分)(别)(为)(14.17%、15.00%、13.23%;客)(座)(率)(分)(别)(为)(80.81%、81.36%、79.76%,同)(比)(分)(别)(提)(升)(1.80、1.72、1.90个)(百)(分)(点)(。
1-5月)(累)(计)(,总)(体)(、国)(内)(、国)(际)(数)(据)(,ASK同)(比)(增)(速)(分)(别)(为)(8.98%、8.62%、11.66%;RPK同)(比)(增)(速)(分)(别)(为)(12.13%、12.35%、13.42%;客)(座)(率)(分)(别)(为)(82.24%、82.47%、82.09%,同)(比)(分)(别)(提)(升)(2.31、2.74、1.28个)(百)(分)(点)(。业)(绩)(增)(长)(在)(三)(大)(航)(中)(,成)(绩)(最)(优)(。
运)(输)(网)(络)(完)(善)(、承)(接)(一)(带)(一)(路)(:公)(司)(围)(绕)(广)(州)(、北)(京)(、重)(庆)(、乌)(鲁)(木)(齐)(四)(大)(枢)(纽)(打)(造)(航)(线)(网)(络)(。公)(司)(在)(广)(州)(机)(场)(国)(际)(线)(份)(额)(56.8%,借)(助)(地)(缘)(优)(势)(发)(展)(欧)(洲)(-大)(洋)(洲)(中)(转)(市)(场)(,并)(能)(够)(分)(享)(东)(南)(亚)(出)(境)(游)(高)(增)(长)(的)(红)(利)(。北)(京)(新)(机)(场)(预)(计)(19年)(投)(产)(,将)(成)(为)(公)(司)(提)(升)(区)(域)(竞)(争)(力)(的)(重)(大)(机)(遇)(,乌)(鲁)(木)(齐)(机)(场)(定)(位)(于)(丝)(绸)(之)(路)(经)(济)(带)(国)(际)(航)(空)(枢)(纽)(,公)(司)(在)(该)(机)(场)(的)(份)(额)(达)(42.4%,具)(备)(明)(显)(的)(规)(模)(优)(势)(。
汇)(率)(风)(险)(减)(小)(:自)(15年)(起)(,公)(司)(通)(过)(提)(前)(偿)(还)(美)(元)(负)(债)(、用)(人)(民)(币)(负)(债)(置)(换)(美)(元)(负)(债)(、采)(用)(经)(营)(租)(赁)(的)(方)(式)(引)(进)(飞)(机)(等)(方)(法)(,降)(低)(美)(元)(负)(债)(占)(比)(。12-16年)(,美)(元)(负)(债)(占)(总)(负)(债)(比)(例)(从)(69.5%下)(降)(至)(29.4%,汇)(率)(风)(险)(明)(显)(下)(降)(。但)(友)(情)(提)(示)(一)(句)(,由)(于)(美)(国)(正)(式)(进)(入)(加)(息)(周)(期)(,还)(是)(要)(时)(刻)(注)(意)(美)(国)(的)(加)(息)(带)(来)(的)(风)(险)(。
产)(能)(释)(放)(:白)(云)(机)(场)(T2航)(站)(楼)(将)(于)(2018年)(2月)(投)(产)(,以)(南)(航)(为)(主)(的)(天)(合)(联)(盟)(将)(搬)(迁)(至)(新)(航)(站)(楼)(,南)(航)(作)(为)(白)(云)(机)(场)(的)(主)(基)(地)(航)(空)(公)(司)(,业)(务)(占)(比)(高)(,过)(去)(一)(直)(受)(到)(机)(场)(产)(能)(瓶)(颈)((16年)(白)(云)(机)(场)(产)(能)(利)(用)(率)(高)(达)(171%)南)(航)(的)(发)(展)(,航)(站)(楼)(的)(产)(能)(的)(释)(放)(,有)(利)(于)(南)(航)(提)(高)(服)(务)(水)(平)(,对)(南)(航)(的)(航)(班)(需)(求)(是)(利)(好)(。北)(京)(大)(兴)(机)(场)(的)(建)(立)(未)(来)(将)(作)(为)(南)(航)(的)(另)(一)(主)(要)(基)(地)(,计)(划)(承)(接)(40%的)(运)(力)(,长)(期)(有)(着)(巨)(大)(的)(产)(能)(潜)(力)(。
北)(美)(市)(场)(开)(拓)(:南)(航)(16年)(国)(际)(航)(线)(ASK、RPK增)(速)(成)(为)(三)(大)(航)(之)(首)(,高)(达)(30%。17年)(3月)(27日)(,南)(航)(混)(改)(落)(实)(,南)(航)(与)(美)(国)(航)(空)(签)(署)(了)(《股)(份)(认)(购)(协)(议)(》,美)(国)(航)(空)(将)(以)(15.53亿)(港)(元)(认)(购)(南)(方)(航)(空)(发)(行)(的)(H股)(股)(票)(2.7亿)(股)(,美)(国)(航)(空)(持)(股)(占)(公)(司)(H股)(股)(本)(的)(约)(8.83%,占)(公)(司)(总)(股)(本)(的)(约)(2.68%。
南)(航)(与)(美)(国)(航)(空)(开)(展)(代)(码)(共)(享)(、联)(运)(协)(议)(等)(合)(作)(,国)(际)(航)(线)(供)(需)(将)(显)(著)(增)(长)(,美)(航)(是)(全)(球)(机)(队)(规)(模)(最)(大)(航)(空)(公)(司)(,有)(接)(近)(100条)(国)(际)(航)(线)(,有)(助)(于)(拓)(展)(北)(美)(市)(场)(这)(个)(盈)(利)(前)(景)(最)(好)(的)(航)(线)(市)(场)(。6月)(22日)(,南)(航)(与)(阿)(联)(酋)(国)(家)(航)(空)(公)(司)(阿)(提)(哈)(德)(航)(空)(建)(立)(代)(码)(共)(享)(伙)(伴)(关)(系)(,正)(如)(其)(航)(线)(图)(,南)(航)(的)(愿)(景)(是)(星)(辰)(大)(海)(。
'&五)(、总)(结)(
航)(空)(公)(司)(因)(为)(其)(安)(全)(性)(、运)(输)(距)(离)(、资)(金)(门)(槛)(等)(有)(着)(天)(然)(的)(护)(城)(河)(,经)(过)(航)(线)(的)(争)(夺)(,公)(司)(的)(合)(并)(后)(,经)(营)(已)(经)(变)(得)(成)(熟)(起)(来)(;经)(济)(的)(发)(展)(,消)(费)(的)(升)(级)(,航)(空)(需)(求)(的)(巨)(大)(潜)(力)(;油)(价)(的)(低)(迷)(,汇)(率)(的)(稳)(定)(将)(成)(为)(绝)(无)(仅)(有)(的)(催)(化)(剂)(。
在)(行)(业)(大)(势)(来)(临)(的)(时)(候)(,请)(坐)(好)(扶)(稳)(。
【作)(者)(简)(介)(】
木)(易)(先)(生)(|格)(隆)(汇)(·专)(栏)(作)(者)(
股)(市)(浮)(沉)(五)(年)(
变)(才)(是)(不)(变)(的)(真)(理)(
【精)(华)(推)(荐)(】
港)(股)(资)(讯)(·新)(可)(能)(
格)(隆)(汇)(app隆)(重)(上)(线)(返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
声)(明)(:该)(文)(观)(点)(仅)(代)(表)(作)(者)(本)(人)(,搜)(狐)(号)(系)(信)(息)(发)(布)(平)(台)(,搜)(狐)(仅)(提)(供)(信)(息)(存)(储)(空)(间)(服)(务)(。
阅)(读)(()
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